A note on the dividend yields of Singtel and how to interpret the figures

A note on the dividend yields of Singtel and how to interpret the figures (information from perplexity.ai)

My question 1: "What have been the trailing, forward and annualized interim dividends of Singtel of Singapore over the past 3 years? Which one is the most appropriate figure to use for long term investment decision purpose?"

The reply: "Singtel, a leading Singapore telecom firm, has paid semi-annual dividends (interim and final) over the past three fiscal years ending March 2023, 2024, and 2025. Trailing dividends reflect the past 12 months' payments, forward dividends indicate expected upcoming payments, and annualized interim dividends project a full year based on the latest half-year payout. For long-term investment, forward or expected annualized dividends best inform decisions by incorporating company guidance on sustainability.

Dividend History (FY2023–2025)

Singtel's total annual dividends in SGD per share were $0.13 for FY2023, $0.168 for FY2024 (adjusted from sources), and $0.189 (or approximately $0.182) for FY2025.

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Interim dividends specifically rose from $0.078 ($0.025 core + $0.053) in FY2023, to $0.079 in FY2024, and $0.10 (core $0.07 + VRD) in FY2025.

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Final dividends complemented these, with FY2025 featuring a $0.10 payout (core $0.067 + VRD $0.033).

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Trailing Dividends

The trailing 12-month (TTM) dividend as of early 2026 stands at around $0.189 (FY2025 total), yielding about 4% at recent share prices near S$4.53.

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This captures all payments over the last year, including the FY2025 interim of $0.082 (paid Dec 2025) and prior final.

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Forward Dividends

Forward dividends for FY2026 are forecasted at $0.186 per share, implying a yield of 4.2%.

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This aligns with analyst consensus and Singtel's core dividend policy, excluding special VRD components.

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Annualized Interim

The latest interim for half-year ended Sep 2025 was $0.082 (up 17% YoY).

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Annualized, this projects $0.164, though actual FY2026 totals may adjust with finals.

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Best for Long-Term Decisions

Forward dividends are most appropriate for long-term investment, as they reflect management's sustainable payout guidance amid stable core earnings growth.

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Trailing figures suit short-term yield checks but may overstate if including one-offs like VRD; annualized interim risks over-optimism without full-year confirmation."

My question 2: "Provide Singtel forward dividend yield and assumptions used"

The reply: "Singtel's forward dividend yield is currently around 4.2-4.5% as of early 2026, based on expected FY2026 total dividends of approximately S$0.186 per share and recent share prices near S$4.20-S$4.53. This yield assumes a progressive core dividend policy (interim 6.4 cents + anticipated final around 7-8 cents, excluding one-off VRD), a payout ratio of 75-80% of underlying net profit, and stable exchange rates. Key assumptions include sustained OpCo EBIT growth (13%+ in H1FY26), contributions from regional associates like Airtel and AIS, and ongoing asset recycling (e.g., S$2B from Airtel stake sale) to support free cash flow without earnings dilution.

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Yield Calculation

Forward yield divides projected annual DPS by current price: e.g., S$0.186 / S$4.40 ≈ 4.2%.

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Assumptions factor in no major forex volatility (debt largely hedged), capex normalization post-5G investments, and exclusion of special VRD beyond committed levels.

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Analyst consensus aligns with this, assuming 5-7% DPS CAGR from core earnings recovery.

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Key Assumptions

• Earnings Base: H1FY26 underlying NPAT up 14% YoY to S$1.35B, annualized with modest H2 growth.
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• Payout Discipline: Core payout at 78% of NPAT, balancing buybacks (S$2B VRSB).
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• Macro Stability: Limited China exposure, hedged debt (86% fixed at ~3.5% cost), net debt/EBITDA at 1.3x."

My question 3: "Are the stocks of Singtel and DBS somewhat negatively co-related so that holding both stocks can make the total portfolio investment more stable in performance, with reference to their stock performance over the past 3 years?"

The reply: "No, Singtel and DBS stocks are not negatively correlated; they exhibit moderate positive correlation (~0.4–0.6) over the past 3 years (2023–Jan 2026), limiting diversification benefits for portfolio stability.

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Correlation Analysis

Both stocks track broader Singapore market trends (STI index), rising together during 2025's equity rally: DBS ~28% gain from strong banking NIM/wealth fees; Singtel ~45% from associate re-ratings (Airtel/Telkomsel) and core EBIT growth.

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Downside phases aligned too, e.g., early 2023 volatility from global rates and regional slowdowns affected telecom margins (Singtel Optus issues) and bank provisions (DBS) similarly. [previous conversation]

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Positive correlation stems from shared exposures: SGD strength, local capex cycles, and investor flight-to-quality in blue-chips during uncertainty.

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Portfolio Stability Impact

Holding both increases concentration risk in Singapore financials/telecom (cyclical sectors), not stability—unlike pairing with global defensives (e.g., utilities).

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Volatility metrics: DBS beta ~1.1 (earnings-sensitive), Singtel ~0.9 (dividend anchor), but co-movements amplify drawdowns (e.g., 2023 dip). [previous conversation]

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For stability, diversify beyond SG banks/telcos via REITs or global yields, given user's dividend focus. [user-information]"